I was one of the many attendees at the ‘Rural Ireland in Uncertain Times’ conference hosted by Teagasc last Thursday. For me, one of the more thought provoking presentations was by David Meredith, of the Rural Economy Research Centre in Teagasc, entitled ‘The Rural Economy and Recession”. Here I will share some of the interesting statistics that David presented.
Before I begin let me just say that David presented a wide range of interesting information not all of which I am sharing with you here. To view David’s complete presentation see the references section at the end of this article.
Rural Ireland
To start, lets have a look at what Ireland looks like, is it rural or is it urban? I think the map below clearly answers that question, where a rural area is defined as an electoral division (ED) with a population density of less that 150 persons per square kilometre.
So Ireland is predominately rural, probably no surprises there, but what percentage of the Irish population live in rural areas? As of 2006, 42% of the national population live in rural Ireland, up 9% on 1991 figures and with a 2.29% growth rate between 2002 and 2006.
How many of those living in rural areas work in rural areas? The chart below helps answer that question. While 42% of the population live in rural Ireland (2006), rural areas account for approximately 28% of total employment opportunities.
Rural Employment
With the national unemployment rate running at approximately 11% as of the second quarter 2009, a question on the lips of many involved in rural development in Ireland is how this is reflected rurally. The graph below shows national the male and female unemployment rates spanning 2004 to 2009.
Couple the above with the fact that the rural workforce is predominately male, just over 60%, the impact of the recent unemployment trend is arguably impacting rural areas in a more severe way.
If we scratch the surface a little bit further and compare employment across the various economic sectors in both urban and rural areas, we see that in 2006 rural areas relied more on the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, the manufacturing industries sector and the construction sector more so than urban areas.
Unfortunately, as can be see from the chart below, according to the latest quarterly national household survey all of these sectors have experienced a decline in the rate of employment.
If we looking at the broad industry sector, we see that it is males that are being impacted more by this decrease in the rate of employment.
Looking more closely at the farming sector, the 2008 National Farm Survey established that:
- 56% of farm households are depended to some extent on an off-farm income
- 40% of farmers held an off-farm job
However, the most recent quarterly national household survey indicates that off-farm employment declined by 30.5% between Q2 2008 and Q2 2009 with declines in construction related employment accounting for 52% of the overall reduction in off-farm employment.
Change in Live Register
David also presented some interesting statistics regarding the live register.
The map below shows the change in the live register between January 2009 and June 2009, with the larger red circles representing greater percentage increase.
David presented similar maps spanning the period June 2006 to June 2009. When these maps are compared one can see:
- January 2007 - June 2007: Increases concentrated in larger towns around Dublin
- June 2007 - January 2008: Increases in smaller towns, particularly those around the larger cities
- January 2008 - June 2008: Increases evident in the Western Region
- June 2008 - January 2009: Rapid increases everywhere
- January 2009 - June 2009: Escalating growth in the live register, particularly in rural areas
Closing thoughts
There is no doubt that Ireland is predominately rural with a large proportion of the Irish population living in rural areas. Rural Ireland contributes almost 30% of all employment opportunities (2006) within the state but now faces particular challenges due to rural employment being predominately male, a reliance on sectors that are now in decline and a decrease in off-farm income opportunities.
However, to paraphrase the recently much quoted Rahm Emanuel, President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, never let a crises go to waste. There is much, I am sure, that can be done to ensure the future sustainable development of rural areas in Ireland, we are limited only by our imaginations.
So lets hear your thoughts? What can we do? Where should we concentrate? Please add your comments - it’s good to talk.
References:
- David Meredith’s presentation ‘The Rural Economy and Recession‘ [pdf]
- All presentations from the conference ‘Rural Ireland in Uncertain Times‘
- National Farm Survey 2008 [pdf]
- Central Statistics Office
Comments are open at the bottom for you to add your thoughts. Any and all input welcomed.
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
David has been in contact with me to say that the map showing the change in live register between January and June 2009 is slightly inaccurate as a small number of local labour offices are not plotted on the map.
Well done John on a great review of David’s paper. Where do I start in posting a comment. The statistics certainly highlight the vulnerability of the rural workforce in terms of employment and I am sure if you add to this the drop in income experienced by farmers and dependent sectors the picture is bleak. To what extent is underemployment an issue in contemporary agriculture? What is the breaking point in terms of income, prospects and quality of life whereby people begin to leave rural areas and move to the cities. Are we a facing another period of outmigration from rural areas?
Hi All,
In relation to Paul’s question re underemployment in agriculture I would draw your attention to a few slides towards the end of the presentation. These use data from the Quarterly National Household Survey to evaluate changing patterns of employment and unemployment. I focused on agricultural employment and found that in the past year there was a 15% drop in the numbers working in the agriculture, forestry and fishing category. 70% of this decline is attributed to self employed farmers ceasing employment, 25% to employees loosing their jobs and 5% to those assisting relatives loosing their job. These data would suggest that the issue of underemployment is not as prevalent (yet?) as it once was. However, the rapid fall recorded in agricultural employment is astounding. I have had a number of conversations with the CSO and others to assess what is going on in the data. So far, no one has come up with a satisfactory answer. Does anyone have ideas as to what is driving change in agricultural employment? Is it a categorical issue (farmers classifying themselves in order to avail of supports e.g. back to education / training schemes? Or, is agricultural employment really falling this fast?
In relation to the second group of questions regarding the potential of outmigration from rural areas. My response is a classic academic one: It depends; not all rural areas are equal. There are accessible and remote areas and the latter continued to loose population over the past decade, a point I highlighted at the 2008 Teagasc Rural Development Conference. It would however be overly simplistic to argue that remote areas are the ones that will experience significant population loss as this would be to ignore the demographic profile of rural Ireland. Migration is generally a young persons (those in their late teens and 20s) activity. This is likely to be particularly true today as those in the older cohorts (30s+) are more likely to have purchased houses. A recent conversation with a director of one of the large estate agencies with a national office network suggests that there are parts of the country where there is no housing market. In order to achieve a sale in rural areas one would have to be willing to accept a very large discount on the supposed ‘value’ of the house a few years ago. For those that recently built or bought in rural areas this could be very difficult. This being the case ‘place’ has become significantly more ‘sticky’ which gives rise to the prospect of rural poverty rearing its unwelcome head once more as those who loose their jobs are unable to find work or move.
In order to get a better feel for the impact on rural areas of population decline through out-migration I undertook a quick piece of analysis exploring the rural – urban distribution of the population between 15 and 25 years of age using Census of Population 2006 data. Looking initially at the percentage of the total population accounted for by 15 – 25 year olds one finds that 16% of the total population in urban areas is 15 – 25 whilst the figure for rural areas is 13%. In general this reflects the older age profile of the rural population. Analysis between rural and urban areas indicates that 37% of the total population of 15 – 25 year olds lives in rural areas. In a generic sense, these data suggest that the overall exposure of rural areas to the risk of depopulation is lower than their urban counterparts given that they account for a smaller proportion of the total rural population.
This conclusion ignores the spatial distribution of employment opportunities and the industrial division of labour between urban and rural areas.
Analysis of the POWCAR dataset looking at the industrial profile of those in employment in 2006 between 15 and 24 finds:
a. Rural areas depend to a significantly greater extent on jobs in agriculture, manufacturing and construction. Of those in employment, 44% were employed in these sectors by comparison to 25% in urban areas.
b. Of those persons 15-24 employed in the construction sector 52% live in rural areas.
c. Males 15-24 living in rural areas are highly dependent on the agriculture, manufacturing and construction sectors as these account for 63% of all (male) employment opportunities. The corresponding figure for males in urban areas is 40%.
d. Few males, less than 5%, are employed in agriculture.
e. Females 15-24 living in rural areas are more dependent on public sector employment which accounts for 21% of all (female) employment opportunities. The corresponding figure for females in urban areas is 16%.
These data show that, though the population of 15-24 year olds comprises a smaller proportion of the rural population, many of these individuals face a high risk of unemployment. This is particularly true of males who are highly dependent on employment in sectors that are currently under considerable pressure, particularly construction.
This analysis demonstrates the risk of unemployment amongst the rural population 15 – 24 years of age. It suggests that, relative to their urban counterparts, those living in rural areas, as more likely to be faced with the prospect of having to seek alternative employment opportunities as key sectors shed jobs. Given the limited opportunities for employment in other (services) sectors available in rural areas it is likely that this population will have to seek employment in urban centres, whether they be in Ireland or abroad. This scenario is likely to have significant implications for rural males given the current declines in agriculture, manufacturing and construction. Rural females are not insulated from these developments given that 12% work in agriculture, manufacturing and construction, a further 35% work in commerce / retail (which has suffered in the current downturn) and 21% are employed in the public sector. This latter group may well be exposed to reduced incomes, reduced hours and reduced availability of part-time employment in the coming months given the proposed cuts to public sector employment and spending.
Overall, unless a number of initiatives are taken in the near future to diversify the rural economy and, associated with this, up-skill the rural workforce, I think it inevitable that rural areas will witness outmigration of younger people.