I was one of the many attendees at the ‘Rural Ireland in Uncertain Times’ conference hosted by Teagasc last Thursday. For me, one of the more thought provoking presentations was by David Meredith, of the Rural Economy Research Centre in Teagasc, entitled ‘The Rural Economy and Recession”. Here I will share some of the interesting statistics that David presented.

Before I begin let me just say that David presented a wide range of interesting information not all of which I am sharing with you here. To view David’s complete presentation see the references section at the end of this article.

Rural Ireland

To start, lets have a look at what Ireland looks like, is it rural or is it urban? I think the map below clearly answers that question, where a rural area is defined as an electoral division (ED) with a population density of less that 150 persons per square kilometre.

So Ireland is predominately rural, probably no surprises there, but what percentage of the Irish population live in rural areas? As of 2006, 42% of the national population live in rural Ireland, up 9% on 1991 figures and with a 2.29% growth rate between 2002 and 2006.

How many of those living in rural areas work in rural areas? The chart below helps answer that question. While 42% of the population live in rural Ireland (2006), rural areas account for approximately 28% of total employment opportunities.

Rural Employment

With the national unemployment rate running at approximately 11% as of the second quarter 2009, a question on the lips of many involved in rural development in Ireland is how this is reflected rurally. The graph below shows national the male and female unemployment rates spanning 2004 to 2009.

Couple the above with the fact that the rural workforce is predominately male, just over 60%, the impact of the recent unemployment trend is arguably impacting rural areas in a more severe way.

If we scratch the surface a little bit further and compare employment across the various economic sectors in both urban and rural areas, we see that in 2006 rural areas relied more on the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, the manufacturing industries sector and the construction sector more so than urban areas.

Unfortunately, as can be see from the chart below, according to the latest quarterly national household survey all of these sectors have experienced a decline in the rate of employment.

If we looking at the broad industry sector, we see that it is males that are being impacted more by this decrease in the rate of employment.

Looking more closely at the farming sector, the 2008 National Farm Survey established that:

• 56% of farm households are depended to some extent on an off-farm income
• 40% of farmers held an off-farm job

However, the most recent quarterly national household survey indicates that off-farm employment declined by 30.5% between Q2 2008 and Q2 2009 with declines in construction related employment accounting for 52% of the overall reduction in off-farm employment.

Change in Live Register

David also presented some interesting statistics regarding the live register.

The map below shows the change in the live register between January 2009 and June 2009, with the larger red circles representing greater percentage increase.

David presented similar maps spanning the period June 2006 to June 2009. When these maps are compared one can see:

• January 2007 – June 2007: Increases concentrated in larger towns around Dublin
• June 2007 – January 2008: Increases in smaller towns, particularly those around the larger cities
• January 2008 – June 2008: Increases evident in the Western Region
• June 2008 – January 2009: Rapid increases everywhere
• January 2009 – June 2009: Escalating growth in the live register, particularly in rural areas

Closing thoughts

There is no doubt that Ireland is predominately rural with a large proportion of the Irish population living in rural areas. Rural Ireland contributes almost 30% of all employment opportunities (2006) within the state but now faces particular challenges due to rural employment being predominately male, a reliance on sectors that are now in decline and a decrease in off-farm income opportunities.

However, to paraphrase the recently much quoted Rahm Emanuel, President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, never let a crises go to waste. There is much, I am sure, that can be done to ensure the future sustainable development of rural areas in Ireland, we are limited only by our imaginations.

So lets hear your thoughts? What can we do? Where should we concentrate? Please add your comments – it’s good to talk.

References:

• David Meredith’s presentation ‘The Rural Economy and Recession‘ [pdf]
• All presentations from the conference ‘Rural Ireland in Uncertain Times‘
• National Farm Survey 2008 [pdf]
• Central Statistics Office